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 judgment aggregation


Aggregating Credences into Beliefs: Agenda Conditions for Impossibility Results

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Binarizing belief aggregation addresses how to rationally aggregate individual probabilistic beliefs into collective binary beliefs. Similar to the development of judgment aggregation theory, formulating axiomatic requirements, proving impossibility theorems, and identifying exact agenda conditions of impossibility theorems are natural and important research topics in binarizing belief aggregation. Building on our previous research on impossibility theorems, we use an agenda-theoretic approach to generalize the results and to determine the necessary and sufficient level of logical interconnection between the issues in an agenda for the impossibility theorems to arise. We demonstrate that (1) path-connectedness and even-negatability constitute the exact agenda condition for the oligarchy result stating that binarizing belief aggregation satisfying proposition-wise independence and deductive closure of collective beliefs yields the oligarchies under minor conditions; (2) negation-connectedness is the condition for the triviality result obtained by adding anonymity to the oligarchy result; and (3) blockedness is the condition for the impossibility result, which follows by adding completeness and consistency of collective beliefs. Moreover, we compare these novel findings with existing agenda-theoretic characterization theorems in judgment aggregation and belief binarization.


Collective discrete optimisation as judgment aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many important collective decision-making problems can be seen as multi-agent versions of discrete optimisation problems. Participatory budgeting, for instance, is the collective version of the knapsack problem; other examples include collective scheduling, and collective spanning trees. Rather than developing a specific model, as well as specific algorithmic techniques, for each of these problems, we propose to represent and solve them in the unifying framework of judgment aggregation with weighted issues. We provide a modular definition of collective discrete optimisation (CDO) rules based on coupling a set scoring function with an operator, and we show how they generalise several existing procedures developed for specific CDO problems. We also give an implementation based on integer linear programming (ILP) and test it on the problem of collective spanning trees.


Egalitarian Judgment Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Egalitarian considerations play a central role in many areas of social choice theory. Applications of egalitarian principles range from ensuring everyone gets an equal share of a cake when deciding how to divide it, to guaranteeing balance with respect to gender or ethnicity in committee elections. Yet, the egalitarian approach has received little attention in judgment aggregation -- a powerful framework for aggregating logically interconnected issues. We make the first steps towards filling that gap. We introduce axioms capturing two classical interpretations of egalitarianism in judgment aggregation and situate these within the context of existing axioms in the pertinent framework of belief merging. We then explore the relationship between these axioms and several notions of strategyproofness from social choice theory at large. Finally, a novel egalitarian judgment aggregation rule stems from our analysis; we present complexity results concerning both outcome determination and strategic manipulation for that rule.


The Complexity Landscape of Outcome Determination in Judgment Aggregation

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the computational complexity of the outcome determination problem for the most important aggregation rules proposed in the literature on logic-based judgment aggregation. Judgment aggregation is a powerful and flexible framework for studying problems of collective decision making that has attracted interest in a range of disciplines, including Legal Theory, Philosophy, Economics, Political Science, and Artificial Intelligence. The problem of computing the outcome for a given list of individual judgments to be aggregated into a single collective judgment is the most fundamental algorithmic challenge arising in this context. Our analysis applies to several different variants of the basic framework of judgment aggregation that have been discussed in the literature, as well as to a new framework that encompasses all existing such frameworks in terms of expressive power and representational succinctness.


Aggregating Probabilistic Judgments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Judgment aggregation (JA) is concerned with aggregating sets of binary truth valuations assigned to logically related issues [27, 19]. Various collective decision making problems in artificial intelligence can be modelled as JA problems, e.g., problems of constructing agreements, such as finding a collective goal in multi-agent systems [36, 2]. In agreement reaching problems each agent in a group is a source of judgments and also typically affected by the collective choice resulting from the aggregation of individual judgments. For example, I am a citizen voting on a referendum that decided not to impose global warming curbing methods, but I am also a citizen that has to live with the consequences of that collective decision.


Counterfactually Fair Prediction Using Multiple Causal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the frameworks of causality, fairness and opinion pooling, we build upon and extend previous work focusing on the qualitative aggregation of causal Bayesian networks and causal models. In order to complement previous qualitative results, we devise a method based on Monte Carlo simulations. This method enables a decision-maker to aggregate the outputs of the causal models provided by different experts while guaranteeing the counterfactual fairness of the result. We demonstrate our approach on a simple, yet illustrative, toy case study.


Hunting for Tractable Languages for Judgment Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Judgment aggregation is a general framework for collective decision making that can be used to model many different settings. Due to its general nature, the worst case complexity of essentially all relevant problems in this framework is very high. However, these intractability results are mainly due to the fact that the language to represent the aggregation domain is overly expressive. We initiate an investigation of representation languages for judgment aggregation that strike a balance between (1) being limited enough to yield computational tractability results and (2) being expressive enough to model relevant applications. In particular, we consider the languages of Krom formulas, (definite) Horn formulas, and Boolean circuits in decomposable negation normal form (DNNF). We illustrate the use of the positive complexity results that we obtain for these languages with a concrete application: voting on how to spend a budget (i.e., participatory budgeting).


Expressing Linear Orders Requires Exponential-Size DNNFs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This report considers a technical question that plays a role in the investigation of the expressivity and efficiency of different knowledge representation formalisms for social choice applications. In particular, we consider the formalism of Boolean circuits in Decomposable Negation Normal Form (DNNF) (or DNNF circuits). This is a formalism that has been studied in the setting of knowledge compilation and that enjoys many positive algorithmic properties [2]. We study the question whether the formalism of DNNF circuits can be used to express linear preferences in an efficient and compact way.


Pooling of Causal Models under Counterfactual Fairness via Causal Judgement Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we consider the problem of combining multiple probabilistic causal models, provided by different experts, under the requirement that the aggregated model satisfy the criterion of counterfactual fairness. We build upon the work on causal models and fairness in machine learning, and we express the problem of combining multiple models within the framework of opinion pooling. We propose two simple algorithms, grounded in the theory of counterfactual fairness and causal judgment aggregation, that are guaranteed to generate aggregated probabilistic causal models respecting the criterion of fairness, and we compare their behaviors on a toy case study.


Modelling Iterative Judgment Aggregation

AAAI Conferences

We introduce a formal model of iterative judgment aggregation, enabling the analysis of scenarios in which agents repeatedly update their individual positions on a set of issues, before a final decision is made by applying an aggregation rule to these individual positions. Focusing on two popular aggregation rules, the premise-based rule and the plurality rule, we study under what circumstances convergence to an equilibrium can be guaranteed. We also analyse the quality, in social terms, of the final decisions obtained. Our results not only shed light on the parameters that determine whether iteration converges and is socially beneficial, but they also clarify important differences between iterative judgment aggregation and the related framework of iterative voting.